Two Iraqi security officials and three independent analysts say ISIS's next leader is likely to be an expert fighter who emerged after the US-led invasion in 2003 from a close circle of Iraqi extremists.
Iraqi officials say a group of possible successors to the slain former ISIS leader Abu Ibrahim al-Qurayshi, who blew himself up during a US operation to avoid capture in Syria last week, includes a commander whom Washington and Baghdad have named. Announced the killing last year.
The death of Qureshi, 45, was another blow to ISIS in 2019, following the death of longtime leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in a similar raid.
Abu Ibrahim al-Quraishi, from Iraq, never addressed his fighters or followers in public, avoided electronic communications, and oversaw fighting in small dispersed units in response to intense pressure from Iraqi and US-led forces. ۔
But those who follow ISIS expect the name of its successor in the coming weeks, because the group that imposed tyrannical rule over large areas of Iraq and Syria from 2014 to 2017 is still a stubborn and deadly. The insurgency continues.
Abu Ibrahim has at least four possible successors, says Fazel Abu Rugif, an adviser to the Iraqi security services.
Former ISIS leaders al-Baghdadi and Abu Ibrahim Qureshi
They include Abu Khadija, whose last known role was to lead ISIS in Iraq, Abu Muslim, the leader of Anbar province, Abu Saleh, about whom little is known but who was close to Baghdadi and the Quraysh.
"There is also Abu Yasir al-Issawi, who is suspected to be still alive," he said. He is valuable to the group because of his long military experience. "
Isawi was killed in an airstrike in January 2021 by both Iraqi forces at the time, as well as the US-led military coalition fighting ISIS in Iraq and Syria.
But an Iraqi security official confirmed that there were strong suspicions that Isawi was still alive.
"If he is not dead, he will be a candidate. He has tried to plan military strikes and has thousands of supporters," he said.
Hassan Hassan, editor of New Lines Magazine, which publishes research on Qureshi, said the new leader would be an experienced Iraqi fighter.
"If they choose one in the coming weeks, they will have to choose one from that constituency," he said.
ISIS has emerged from the militants who have been waging a growing insurgency against US troops and Iraqi forces since 2003.
The Islamic State of Iraq, also known as Al-Qaeda in Iraq, was a branch of Osama bin Laden's global al-Qaeda organization and a precursor to ISIS, which took shape in the chaos of the Syrian civil war across the border.
A security official and an army colonel told Reuters that from the beginning, both al-Qaeda members in Iraq, Baghdadi and Qureshi, spent time in US custody in the mid-2000s.
In contrast, none of Qureshi's four possible successors were captured by US forces.
Officials and analysts in various countries agree that ISIS is under more pressure than ever and will never restore its self-proclaimed caliphate. But they are divided over how important Qureshi's death is to the group.
Some say the fight against ISIS will be detrimental to the United States and its allies for years to come, as it will take the form of a permanent insurgency in which new leaders are ready to take over.
One of the Iraqi security officials said that in Syria, ISIS units operate as a dispersed network of individual groups to prevent them from being targeted. Therefore, we do not believe that the death of Qureshi will have any significant effect.
It has also become difficult to track them because they have long stopped using mobile phones for communication.
Some officials say that since their territorial defeats in Iraq and Syria in 2017 and in 2019, ISIS leaders have found it easier to move between the two countries, with the help of various armed forces in areas of control. There is a difference.
Security and military officials say the 600-kilometer (372-mile) border with Syria has made it more difficult for Iraqi forces to stop the infiltration of militants through underground tunnels.
ISIL's new style of leadership
Lahore Talabani, the former head of counter-terrorism in Iraq's autonomous Kurdistan Region, said some ISIS leaders could travel along the same route throughout Iraq.
"When you see an increase in attacks in a particular area, I would not be surprised if a significant person passes through that area," he told Reuters.
The Khilafah was defeated, but ISIS was never eliminated. I'm not sure we're done. "
ISIS's occupation of land in Iraq and Syria separated it from other like-minded groups, such as al-Qaeda, and became the center of its mission in 2014, declaring a caliphate and claiming sovereignty over all Muslim lands and peoples.
Abu Raghef said the new leader may have stronger military credentials than the Quraysh, which Iraqi officials say followers see as more of an Islamic legal mind than a military man.
"The style of attack and operations will change according to the style of the new leader," he said. The new leader can believe in big and severe attacks, bombs or suicide bombers. "
Analysts say that despite Qureshi's low profile and operational secrecy, his killing is likely to affect the group's fighters.
Hassan said that removing Qureshi would demoralize him.
