Withdrawal of India from Chahbahar Railway Project: Prospects and Concerns for Pakistan!

"China has excluded India from the Chah-e-Bihar-Zahedan rail project."

This news has gained significant importance in the light of the Tehran-Beijing Strategic Agreement after the Sino-Indian border clash. The news immediately gave the impression that India was out of the Chahbahar port project.

So far this impression is not correct as the second day after the news of the derailment of the rail project was published in The Hindu, the Iranian news agency Mehr reported that the third transit consignment of Afghanistan via Iran to the Indian temple from Chahbahar port. And has been sent to Jawaharlal Nehru Ports.

From the news of Mehr News Agency, it became clear that so far India has not been completely out of Chahbahar port. India started work on Chahbahar in 2014 and invested more than 85 million to build the port. In December 2018, India took over the management of Chahbahar port. India Ports Global Limited received an 18-month lease which was later extended to 10 years. There have been no reports of a change in port control or a lease since the rail project was scrapped.

The Chah-e-Bihar port is of great importance to India. Due to the strained relations with Pakistan, India has been facing difficulties in accessing Afghanistan and Central Asia. Trade with Central Asia is important for India, and with control of the Chahbahar port, India has direct access to Afghanistan. There are several road and rail projects to connect the Chahbahar port to Afghanistan, including the Zaranj Delaram Road, also known as Route 606, built by India. The road connects to the Kandahar-Herat highway and becomes a gateway to Central Asia.

In 2016, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Afghan President Ashraf Ghani signed a three-way transit agreement on the southern Iranian port of Chahbahar.

Being in the Gulf of Oman, Chah-e-Bihar is also of strategic importance. The port is located at the mouth of the Strait of Hormuz and is only 100 miles from Gwadar. The Strait of Hormuz is the largest oil route, but during the Iran-Saudi Arabia tensions, India increased naval patrols in the Strait of Hormuz based on control of Chah-e-Bihar.

The Tehran-Beijing Strategic Agreement is said to be the catalyst for India's exclusion from the Chah-e-Bihar-Zahedan rail project. The economic and security deal is said to be worth 400 400 billion, but details have been obtained from the New York Times, which claims to have a draft agreement. The agreement has not yet been tabled in Iran's parliament, and China is adamant about it.

Under the agreement, China will invest in infrastructure projects in Iran and buy Iranian oil for 25 years. There are many reasons for China's interest in Iran, but one is the slowdown in the C-Pac project in Pakistan.

After the change of government in Pakistan in 2018, C-Pak suffered several setbacks. Government officials inadvertently fired statements against the previous government and announced renegotiations on C-Pack projects. China was also disturbed by the situation and work on C-Pack projects stalled.

China began looking for new ways to maintain its presence and influence in the region, and on the occasion of Iranian Foreign Minister Jawad Zarif's visit to Beijing in late August last year, China offered to invest  400 billion in Iran. The agreement now being announced was the result of Jawad Zarif's visit.

China had offered to invest 28 280 billion in Iran's oil and gas sector and 120 120 billion in transport infrastructure. China has promised to continue importing Iranian oil despite new US sanctions, while India has been reluctant to buy Iranian oil. Importantly, the first right of Chinese companies has been recognized in Chinese projects in Iran. Now, if Chinese companies withdraw from a project on their own, then the project can be openly bid for. China has reportedly agreed to deploy 5,000 troops to secure the projects.

China offered $400 billion in investment to Iran during Iranian Foreign Minister Jawad Zarif's visit to Beijing in late August last year, AFP reported.

The strategic location of Iran provides China with all the benefits that it could have got from C-Pack and Gwadar port, but the additional benefit is access to the Strait of Hormuz. Access to Afghanistan and Central Asia is possible from Iran as well as Pakistan.

China does not have a direct land route with Iran, but Iran's location makes it more attractive because it has direct access to Central Asia, and even if there is no peace in Afghanistan, direct access to Central Asia will be possible.

Chinese investment will boost Iran's economy, while rail and road links between Iran's Bandar Abbas and Chah-e-Bihar will increase. Rail links between Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan connect China and Afghanistan, and 41 cargo containers were shipped from Afghanistan to China in September. China could also use these rail links to transport goods to Iran.

The PTI government had almost wrapped up the C-Pak project, but after the change in the constitutional status of occupied Kashmir on August 5 last year, Pakistan had to look to China again.